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As I’ve written in past memos, I have an indelible recollection of the first book I read as a Wharton freshman in 1963. The book was Decisions Under Uncertainty: Drilling Decisions by Oil and Gas Operators by C. Jackson Grayson, Jr. (who in 1971 would take on the role of “price czar” in the Nixon administration’s efforts to get inflation under control).
就像我在之前的备忘录曾经提到过的，我对 1963 年作为沃顿商学院新生时所读的第一本书至今仍记忆犹新。那本书的书名是《在不确定性中作决策：石油和天然气运营商的钻井决策》，作者是C.Jackson Grayson, Jr.，他曾于 1971 年在尼克松政府中担任物价委员会主席并协助政府控制通胀。
The best and most lasting thing I took away from Grayson’s book – and the first thing I remember learning in college – was the observation that you can’t tell the quality of a decision from the outcome. This revelation had a profound influence on me as a 17-year-old and represented the first critical building block in my understanding of how the world works.
格雷森的这本书给我最大、最深远的启迪 —— 也是我大学里学到的第一课，就是我们无法从结果出发分辨一个决策的好坏。这个启示对于当时 17 岁的我影响极大，成为了我理解世界运作方式的第一块重要基石。
As Grayson explained, you make the best decision you can based on what you know, but the success of your decision will be heavily influenced by (a) relevant information you may lack and (b) luck or randomness. Because of these two factors, well-thought-out decisions may fail, and poor decisions may succeed. While it might seem counterintuitive, the best decision-maker isn’t necessarily the person with the most successes, but rather the one with the best process and judgment. The two can be far from the same, and especially over a small number of trials, it can be impossible to know who’s who.
正如格雷森在书中所阐释的，人们可以根据自己的知识作出最佳决策，但决策的成败会受到以下两个因素的显著影响： （一）你可能缺少的相关信息；以及 （二）运气或随机性。 由于这两个因素的存在，即使经过深思熟虑作出的决策也可能会失败，而糟糕的决策却又可能会取得成功。这看起来似乎有悖于常理，但最好的决策者不一定是那些成功次数最多的人，而是拥有最好的决策流程和判断力的人。两者可能相去甚远，而且如果决策次数有限，可能无法将他们区分开。
By my stage in life – if not well before – one should have figured out his strengths and weaknesses and tilted his activities toward the former. I’ve concluded that my strengths include the ability to:
到了我人生的这个阶段（不论之前怎么样），一个人应该对自己的优缺点已经有了自知之明，并且能够相应地发挥自己的优势。以我来说，我的优点包括以下能力：
frame questions,
提出问题
logically organize data and weigh pros and cons,
能够有序地组织数据并权衡利弊
know what I don’t know,
清楚什么是我不知道的
accept that future outcomes aren’t predictable,
接受未来的结果是不可预测的
think about the future probabilistically, and
从概率角度思考未来
make decisions incorporating all of the above (although far from always correctly).
根据以上所有内容作出决策（当然未必总是正确的）
Also very important has been the ability to internalize Grayson’s point about decision quality (and thus live with my unsuccessful decisions from time to time). This set of attributes equipped me for a career in investing . . . and for finding enjoyment in games of chance.
还有一个很重要的能力是，将格雷森关于决策质量的观点充分消化并为己所用（以及因此必须时不时地接受自己那些不成功的决策）。正是这些特质让我为投资职业生涯做好了准备…… 同时也让我在需要运气的游戏中找到了乐趣。