I wrote most of this memo over this past weekend, on the heels of the tumultuous seven-day correction. But I couldn’t get it out on Monday, and that day the S&P 500 rallied by 4.5%, or 135 points, for the biggest point gain in its history. I just can’t update it daily to take into account every rise or fall (or rate cut). And my real goal – as usual – is to suggest how to think about developments, not to say “buy” or “sell.” So please read this memo as of Sunday afternoon – whatever the markets have done since – and let me show how I assess the recent events.
这篇备忘录的大部分写于上个周末，紧随着股市七天剧烈的修正。但是我周一的时候还没写完，而当天标普500止跌回升了4.5%，或者说135点，是其历史上的最大的点数上涨。我不能对备忘录做每天的更新，将每天的上涨或下跌考虑进去（或者利率的削减）。而我真正的目标——和往常一样——是提出关于如果思考关于变化的建议，并非告诉你“买”或“卖”。所以请当做你在周日的下午阅读这篇备忘录——无论此后的市场已经发生了什么——让我展示我如何评估最近的事件。
I last used this memo title on September 19, 2008, two days after Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy filing. This is certainly an appropriate time to recycle it.
上一次使用这个备忘录标题无人知晓 是在 2008 年 9 月 19 日，即雷曼兄弟公司申请破产后两天。当下是再合适不过的时机来再次使用这个标题。这几周，我被反复询问如何看待新型冠状病毒及其对市场的影响。
Over the last few weeks, I’ve been asked repeatedly for my view of the coronavirus and its implications for the markets. I’ve had a ready answer, thanks to something from my January memo, You Bet! As you may remember, I drew heavily on quotations from Annie Duke’s book on decision making, Thinking in Bets. The one that stayed with me most – and that I’ve used a lot since the memo was published on January 13 – is this one:
现在看来，1 月份写的备忘录 博弈与投资 ，已经给出了现成的答案。读者朋友可能还记得，我引用了很多安妮・杜克的著作《对赌》中有关决策的内容。其中让我印象最深刻，也是自 1 月 13 日备忘录发表以来我用得最多的一段是：
An expert in any field will have an advantage over a rookie. But neither the veteran nor the rookie can be sure what the next flip will look like. The veteran will just have a better guess. (Emphasis added)
在任何领域，专家都比新手有优势。但是老将和新手都不能确定下一次翻牌会是什么结果。只不过老将猜中结果的概率更高。
In other words, if I said anything about the coronavirus, it would be nothing but a guess.
换言之，任何有关新型冠状病毒的分析，都只是我的猜测。
I’ve written in the past about my reaction when people in China ask for my view of their country’s future. “You live there,” I say. “I don’t. Why are you asking me?” Not only am I not an expert on China, but I firmly believe the future of a country isn’t subject to prediction, especially one that operates under a system that’s unique. I furnish my opinion of China’s future, but I hasten to point out that it’s nothing but a hunch. People may ask me for my opinion because they think I’m intelligent, think I’ve been a successful investor, or know I’ve lived through a lot of history. But none of that should be confused with expertise on subjects of every kind.
过去我曾经在备忘录中写过，在中国，人们问我对他们国家未来的看法时我的回应。“您住在中国，” 我说。“但我却没有，您为什么要问我呢？” 我不仅不是研究中国问题的专家，而且我坚信一个国家的未来无法预测，尤其是一个拥有独特运营体系的国家。虽然后来我也发表了对中国未来的看法，但也随即说明了这只是直觉。人们之所以会询问我的意见，是因为他们认为我有智慧，是一位成功的投资者，或者是因为我亲身经历了很多历史事件。但这不等同于我在所有领域拥有专长。
And that leads me back to the coronavirus. No one knows much about it, since this is its first appearance. As Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch said on a podcast on the subject, there are (a) facts, (b) informed extrapolations from analogies to other viruses and (c) opinion or speculation. The scientists are trying to make informed inferences. Thus far, I don’t think there’s enough data regarding the coronavirus to enable them to turn those inferences into facts. And anything a non-scientist says is highly likely to be a guess.
回到新型冠状病毒的问题。由于这是人类历史上第一次出现的一种病毒，无人对其会有太多深入的了解。正如哈佛大学流行病学家马克・利普西奇 (Marc Lipsitch) 在一次播客上讨论这个主题时所讲的，目前关于病毒存在：
（一）事实；
（二）从其他病毒类推得出的有根据的推论；
（三）观点或推测。
科学家们试图做出有根据的推论。到目前为止，我认为关于新型冠状病毒的数据还不足以使他们将这些推论转化为事实，而任何并非来自科学家口中的说法都很可能是猜测。